Market update, 08 March, 2025

In December market update we raised the warning regarding high StockMetrum index levels. After 3 months it is clear that given the current political environment StockMetrum index values could be misleading. The major component of our index is based on the bottom-up approach, thus it is not designed to anticipate political decisions of a small group of individuals characterized by inconsistent behaviour.

Nov 2024Dec 2024Jan 2025Feb 2025Mar 20255600580060006200640066004550556065707580
S&P 500Top 10 of S&P 500S&P 500 minus top 10StockMetrum indexS&P 500 index vs. StockMetrum indexDate, 01 November, 2024 – 07 March, 2025Normalized performanceStockMetrum index

Short-term market movements should be certainly viewed in a context of a long(er)-term trend. Although we do not regularly publish such valuations, we do have one-year estimates for the range of S&P 500 index. Range represents 90% confidence interval, we use both capitalization-weighted estimate and median-based estimate.

low high low_median high_median
date
2025-03-07 4607.75 6645.86 4633.54 6542.20
2025-09-07 4495.21 6517.16 4543.14 6415.91
2026-03-06 4424.14 6432.28 4467.78 6341.52

We would like to point out that all our estimates for the S&P 500 index are declining.

Publication date: 08/03/2025